critical

Australian El Nino/La Nina production volatility

high

Canadian Prairie drought

high

China-Australia barley trade disputes

high

Russia-Ukraine war disruption to Black Sea barley exports

moderate

Russian export tax/quota policy

moderate

EU harvest quality (winter yields, spring malting)

moderate

China feed demand swing

moderate

Saudi/Gulf livestock structural demand

moderate

Fusarium head blight / DON mycotoxin

moderate

Corn ↔ barley feed substitution