critical

Indian Export Policy Risk (single most consequential factor)

high

El Nino / La Nina monsoon variability

high

Mekong drought + saltwater intrusion

moderate

Thai monsoon flooding/drought

moderate

China import demand swing

moderate

Indonesia import quota policy

moderate

Philippines tariff policy

moderate

Pakistan Indus water disruptions

moderate

EU tricyclazole MRL pesticide enforcement

moderate

Arsenic contamination

moderate

Aflatoxin from improper storage