critical

EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation)

high

Brazilian/Argentine drought (La Nina cycle)

high

US summer drought + heat stress

high

US-China tariff/trade war

high

Brazilian deforestation reputation

moderate

BRL/USD + ARS/USD volatility

moderate

Argentine export tax (retenciones)

moderate

Renewable diesel demand structural boom

moderate

US corn-soybean ratio planting decision

moderate

Chinese demand opacity + Sinograin stockpiling