critical

Brazil Centre-South drought / dryness

critical

India export ban / quota policy

high

Thai-Indian monsoon failure

high

Brazilian ethanol mix policy + tax

high

HFCS substitution + sugar tax expansion

moderate

US TRQ allocation changes

moderate

Crude oil / ethanol parity shock

moderate

Santos / Paranaguá port congestion

moderate

Cane yellow leaf virus / Sugarcane Mosaic

moderate

Sugarcane Smut / Rust outbreaks

moderate

EU CBAM + sustainability disclosure expansion

moderate

Non-nutritive sweetener acceleration (stevia, allulose, monk fruit)