Wheat supply risks

Active and seasonal supply-side risks affecting wheat markets.

critical

Russia-Ukraine war disruption

high

Russian export tax/quota policy

high

Northern Hemisphere June-August weather

high

Russian winter kill + spring drought

high

USA HRW Plains drought

high

Egyptian GASC tenders

moderate

Australian El Nino drought cycle

moderate

Argentine drought

moderate

Wheat-Corn substitution ratio

moderate

FX volatility RUB/EUR/AUD/USD

moderate

Indian export bans for food security