France as a commodity importer

EU 2024 Production Crisis. EU production hit 12-year low at 121-126 MMT (-8.5% YoY). French wheat output fell ~25% on persistent rain through harvest. Germany down ~10%. Wet harvest reduced quality and quantity simultaneously. EU export availability constrained, supporting Russian/Ukrainian price competitiveness in MENA tenders.

UK/EU Generational Consumption Decline. Traditional lamb-consuming markets (UK 5-6 kg/capita) showing structural decline as younger generations consume less. Brexit added trade friction with EU. UK imports legs from NZ counter-seasonally and exports shoulders/breast back to EU. Long-term demand erosion concern.