Annual cycle by region
Each row tracks one production region across the calendar year. Amber bars mark critical weather-sensitive windows where yield outcomes are determined.
Why these windows matter
Sheep / Lamb yields are determined disproportionately during a small number of weather-sensitive windows. Across the 5 production regions tracked here, 11 windows show outsized sensitivity to rainfall, temperature, or storm damage. Buyers who track these windows can position contracts ahead of price moves driven by yield uncertainty.
The most consequential weather risks for sheep / lamb are concentrated in specific months. 100% pasture-based pastoral systems are weather-dependent. El Niño cycles cause severe drought in Australia, forcing flock liquidation - prices drop short-term then spike as flock shrinks. 2018-2020 Australia drought dropped flock 20%; 2021-2023 recovery. Increasing drought frequency/intensity in NZ/Australia. Heat stress affecting reproduction. Shifting pasture growth patterns. Long-term production capacity risk for pastoral systems. These forces drive the seasonal volatility that shows up in futures markets weeks or months later.
The calendar above is structural, not predictive — it shows where and when sheep / lamb grows under normal conditions. Weather anomalies (El Niño, La Niña, regional droughts) shift these windows by weeks and compound across regions. Atlas Tradex tracks these anomalies in its supply-risk data and surfaces them on the sheep / lamb risk surface.
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