India as a commodity importer

India - Single Largest Trade Driver (~40% of Global Exports). India ~40% of global rice trade. Any export policy shift is market-defining. 2023/24: 20% export duty on non-basmati white rice + outright ban on some grades = global prices spiked 30%+. Restrictions partially eased 2024/25. GOI food policy is the single most consequential variable in global rice markets.

Soybean Oil vs Palm Oil Dynamics. High substitutability in frying and industrial; moderate in food (flavor differences). Soy typically $100-200/MT premium to palm. India is swing buyer - substitutes between palm/soy/sunflower based on price. EU palm biodiesel phase-out shifts demand to soy and rapeseed. Palm oil price crash would compress soy demand significantly.

India - Swing Buyer Between Sunflower/Soy/Palm. India largest sunflower oil importer (2.5-3.5 MMT/year). Substitutes between sunflower/soy/palm based on relative prices. War 2022 response: shifted from Ukraine sunflower → palm + soy increased. Current 2026: balanced import basket, sunflower 25-30% of edible oil imports. Frequent import duty changes (0-20%). Major refiners: Adani Wilmar, Ruchi Soya.